Question: Assignment 3 Due Sep 23th in class Total Points: 16 Step 3: Average factors in Step 2 corresponding to the same period of each season

Assignment 3 Due Sep 23th in class Total Points:

Assignment 3 Due Sep 23th in class Total Points: 16 Step 3: Average factors in Step 2 corresponding to the same period of each season (Hint: same quarter of each year), what are the 4 seasonal factors for each quarter of the year? (1 point) Attention: PLEASE clearly show your calculations, including the formula used for solving the problem, and numbers used for calculations. A popular brand of tennis shoe has had the following demand history by quarters over a three- year period. Demand 16 Demand 14 Year 1 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Demand 12 25 76 Year 2 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 32 Year 3 1st quarter 2nd quarter | 3rd quarter 4th quarter 45 71 84 52 62 47 Problem 1 (6 points): a) Determine the season al factors for each quarter b) Based on the result of part (a), determine the deseasonalized demand series (Hint: divide each observation by the corresponding seasonal factor), and fill in the table below (1 point): Step 1: What is the sample mean of all the observations? (1 point) Year 1 Deseasonalized Year 2 Demand Deseasonalized Year 3 Demand Deseasonalized Demand 1* quarter 1st quarter 1* quarter Step 2: Divide each observation by the average computed in step 1 to get factors for each quarter in each year, and fill in the table below (1 point): 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 3rd quarter 3rd quarter Year 1 Factors Year 2 Factors Year 3 Factors 4h quarter 4th quarter 4 quarter 1quarter 1st quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 3rd quarter 3rd quarter 4 quarter 4th quarter 4th quarter c) Predict the demand for each quarter of year 4 for the deseasonalized series from a six- quarter moving average. (Hint: MA(6) on the deseasonalized series) (1 point) d) Using the results from parts (a) and (c), predict the demand for the shoes for each quarter of Year 4. (Hint: re-seasonalize the forecasts) (1 point)

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