Assignment $3$: Total points: $40(3$ possible extra credit points$)$

Project Description: The goal of this assignment is to use the below$-$noted stakeholder comments about ecosystem services provisioning by stormwater wetlands to construct a causal chain diagram that captures services provisioning by a wetland as seen by its stakeholders. You will use this diagram as the foundation for a Bayesian Belief Network model. A series of look$-$up tables you can use to operationalize the model are provided $($the tables include more values than necessary so be careful$).$ You will need to use the Theorem of Total Probability to estimate the probability that the wetland can provide each ecosystem service under standard operating conditions $($BAU$)$ and two management scenarios $($S$1$ & S$2).$ You will be asked to convert the probabilities estimated for each scenario into dollars of benefit using a willingness to pay table. Finally, assuming a fixed cost per scenario you will be asked to calculate the benefit$-$cost ratio and determine which scenario you think leads to the best outcome.

Stakeholder Quotes:

"The size of the wetland is really important. We thought a lot about it when we designed the system. Its honestly smaller than we'd like, which impacts its ability to capture runoff during large storms."