Assignment 4 - Time Series The table provides data about the use of electricity in a large college in country A for each quarter from 2015 Qtr 1 to 2019 Qtr 2. () Calculate the trend using a 4-quarter moving average method. (6 marks] Calculate the average seasonal component for each type of quarter using an additive model [6 marks] Consumption of electricity 2015 - 2019 Year 2015 Otr 2016 Units used (000s) 207 152 127 176 172 186 133 177 204 175 131 174 183 2018 176 132 175 2019 194 164 (iii) The trend for each quarter of 2020 has been predicted as follows: Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Electricity consumption units (000s) 170 172 174 175 Using the seasonal components you have calculated in (ii), predict the actual consumption of electricity in each quarter of 2016. [4 marks) NOTE: It is not necessary to draw a graph. (iv) Suggest factors which could affect the accuracy of the forecasts. (4 marks] Assignment 4 - Time Series The table provides data about the use of electricity in a large college in country A for each quarter from 2015 Qtr 1 to 2019 Qtr 2. () Calculate the trend using a 4-quarter moving average method. (6 marks] Calculate the average seasonal component for each type of quarter using an additive model [6 marks] Consumption of electricity 2015 - 2019 Year 2015 Otr 2016 Units used (000s) 207 152 127 176 172 186 133 177 204 175 131 174 183 2018 176 132 175 2019 194 164 (iii) The trend for each quarter of 2020 has been predicted as follows: Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Electricity consumption units (000s) 170 172 174 175 Using the seasonal components you have calculated in (ii), predict the actual consumption of electricity in each quarter of 2016. [4 marks) NOTE: It is not necessary to draw a graph. (iv) Suggest factors which could affect the accuracy of the forecasts. (4 marks]