Assignment $4$

Worth $25$ points

Due: Tue. $3/26/24,$ in class

Use Excel to solve this assignment

Globetron manufactures components for use in small electronic products such as computers,

printers, car audio systems, and smartphones at plants in Belgium, Germany, and France. The parts

are transported by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexico,

South America, the United States, and the Pacific Rim. The company has to reserve space on ships

in advance, and thus needs an accurate forecasting model. Following are the number of cubic feet

of container space the company has used in each of the past $18$ months:

For $(1)-(4)$ below, compute the forecasted shipping space

required using:

$1)$ Three month moving average

for months $4$ through $19.$

$(2$ points$)$

$2)$ Three month weighted

moving average for months $4$ through $19,$ with weights $0\mathrm{.}5$ for

the most recent month, $0\mathrm{.}3$ for the next most recent month and

$0\mathrm{.}2$ for the distant month.

$(2$ points$)$

$3)$ Exponential smoothing for months $2$ through $19,$ with $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}8.$

$(2$ points$)$

$4)$ Adjusted exponential smoothing for months $2$ through $19,$

with $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}8$ and $\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}6.(4$ points$)$

$5)$ Compare the accuracy of the above four forecasting models

using MAD $($mean absolute deviation$)(12$ points$)$

$6)$ Which of the above four forecasting models would you

recommend and why $?(3$ points$)$