Assignment #5: Time Series Analysis Simple Moving Average E(most recent k data values) List-k+1 Vi = _yt -k+ 1 + ."+yt-1+yt yt+1 k k k where "t+1 = forecast of the time series for period t + 1 yt = actual value of time series in period t k = number of periods of time series data used to generate the forecase Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = Et=1lyt - Dt+1l n Question la) Forecast the future demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given below using each forecast method.Actual Demand 4-week moving average 0}\" 1) Absolute Forecast Error (4- 01:) week} \"1": 'fnt I} I 6- 2 5.99 6.55 II '\\-\\.I oe- F\" F. S .88 6.34 _ 11 12 13 m 15 5.73 15 6.98 7.32 H at .4 M .4 i H .4 N D Question lb) what is the forecast the future demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given above for week 15 and week 20 using above forecast method using 4weeks smoothing average? Week 15 -='7 Week 20 ='7 Question 1c) Forecast the future demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given below using each forecast method. Actual Demand 2-week moving average [53\" 1) (Yr) Absolute Forecast Error (7- week} \"1": 'fcn I} 6.23 5 99 6.55 6.?8 6 12 5.88 6.34 6 6'.I' 6.98 6.20 0' .0' . B IS 12 L 6.89I r4 3 U1 6.78 6.98 7'12 2.32 r4 E [u :2 "L20 Question 1d) what is the forecast the future demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given above for week 15 and week 20 using forecast method using Tweeks smoothing average? Week 15 =" Week 20 =" Question 1e) Comparing MAEs of 4week and Tweeks moving average. which forecasting model is the best? Exponential Smoothing ?t+1 = \"1': + (1 \"Wt where fl = forecast of the time series for period t + 1 y; = attuai mine of time series in period t ft = forecast of the time series f or period t a = smoothing constant (0 s a S 1) Question 11) Forecast [he fulure demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given below using each forecast method. Week Actual Demand Exponential smoothing forecast Absolute Forecast Error (Vt) Pt+1) using a = 0.2 6.23 2 5.99 6.23 3 6.55 4 6.78 S 6.12 6 5.88 7 6.34 8 6.67 6.98 10 6.20 1 1 6.15 12 6.22 13 6.89 14 7.04 15 6.78 16 6.98 17 7.12 18 7.32 19 7.04 20 7.20 Total MAE Question 1g) what is the forecast the future demand for bag of apple based on the historical data given above for week 15 and week 20 using forecast method using exponential smoothing.Week 15 - 2 Week 20 - 2 Question 1h) Comparing MAEs of 4-week moving average, 7-week moving average, and exponential smoothing (a = 0.2), which forecasting model is the best? Question 2) The monthly demand for units manufactured by Tesla Company has been as follows in 2022: Year Month Units January 500 February 470 March 510 April 495 May 510 June 450 2022 July 410 August 475 September 505 October 490 November 525 December 550 January 510 February 570 March 530 April 513 May 560 590 2023 June July 520 August 576 September October November December a. Use the three-month moving average method to forecast the number of units for next year-2023 September to December. b. Calculate the mean absolute error (MAE) of the three-month moving average method for September to December of 2023.c. Use the exponential smoothing methods to forecast the number of units for September to December 2023. Assume the initial forecast for Februaryr 2022 was 420 units. Use smoothing constant alpha (or) = 0.4-. d. Calculate the mean absolute error [MAE] of the exponential smoothing method for September to December 2023. e. Compare the MAEs for both forecasting methods. which one should be used for future demand forecasting