Assignment:

This case describes a situation (based on actual events but disguised in this telling) in which city officials receive a warning that as a result of persistent snow followed by rain, there is a significant probability of a major landslide from a hillside above the town. If a landslide were to occur, it would likely damage a group of homes at the bottom of the hill and might cause injuries. The question the officials face is whether to encourage a voluntary evacuation or whether to order a mandatory evacuation -- and, in either case, how best to go about it.

You should assume that you are a consultant hired to advise the town officials on the issues and decisions they are facing in this case. Using the information in your reading of the chapters to date, you should carefully craft an argument for the actions that you believe they should undertake to address these issues. The Mayor is an established leader and the town recognizes that you are also an expert in this field. You must consult them on what to do. You should evaluate the decision-making process and environments that affect this organization. You'll also want to consider the community culture and the way residents approach the ethics of decision-making.

• Introduction
• Problem Definition - Defines and understands the key issues. What You Think: The Real Problem Is.
• Your Analysis- Analysis of key issues is supported by presentation of correct theory and evidence of critical thinking.
• Your Recommendations - Recommendations synchronized with problem statement and analysis, reasonable for the problem analysis.
• Conclusion, Factual Support - Analysis and recommendations are supported with facts and verifiable references. Conclusion is logical and follows from the body of the paper.

The New Hampshire Landslide Warning When people think about landslides in New Hampshire, most of them focus on the quadrennial February Presidential primary. During one spring a few years ago, though, one New Hampshire town was focused on a very different form of landslide. The winter had been wet and cold, and a substantial snow pack had built up in the hills surrounding the town. Then the weather warmed, and it began to rain. Streams rose as the snow melted, and the river was several times above flood stage, but no serious damage occurred. But the rain continued. It wasn't a hard rain, and it didn't rain all the time. But rain fell again and again, until the earth was completely saturated. "Mud season"-a recognized fifth season in New England, which occurs between winter and spring-always turned dirt roads into quagmires and fields into marshes, but even old-timers couldn't remember a mud season that lasted as long or that had mud as deep. A small landslide on a steep hillside overlooking the town was the first sign of real trouble. It was small, and it missed the edge of the group of about 30 small houses nestled at the base of the hill. But it looked ominous, and there was no reason to think that a larger slide couldn't happen. If it did, it could seriously endanger the houses and anyone in them or in the neighborhood. If the hillside collapsed in a major way, it might sweep the whole group of houses into the still-swollen river. Town officials walked on the hillside, and found its top layer wet and loose. The hillside had little in the way of vegetation beyond small bushes to hold it in place. It was steep, and just walking on it started small rocks and bits of mud sliding. Standing up on the hill, the danger it posed to the houses below was inescapable. Town officials asked a local resident who did work as an excavator (digging foundations and installing septic systems) to have a look at the hillside to see if it was likely to slide and to make a recommendation about whether the cluster of houses at the base of the hill should be evacuated. He tried to carry out a "perc" (for "percolation") test-a method used to determine whether a septic system could be installed. "It's not really a test for landslides," he said, "but I don't know how to test for that. A perc test tells us if the soil is draining. You dig a hole and pour water in it and see how long it takes to drain. The longer it takes, the less suitable the soil is for a septic system." The results were discouraging. He couldn't get his excavator up the hill to do the test, because it was too muddy, but he dug a hole by hand. "I never got a chance to pour any water into that hole," he said. "When I dug the hole, it filled by itself, and the water just sat there." He said it was far beyond his expertise to predict whether the hillside could slide, "but I don't see any reason to think that it can't," and he recommended that the town officials find a soil expert to guide them. Meanwhile, the rain continued. Town officials finally located an expert in soil engineering-a professor at a world-renowned engineering school in Massachusetts who consulted as a construction advisor about how to minimize the chances of land slippage and as an expert witness in insurance cases involving damage from landslides. She inspected the hillside, did two simple sheer strength tests (used to assess the tendency of snow or soil to break and slide over its under layer, and declared unequivocally that "there is a serious possibility of a major slide, and the houses below this hillside should be evacuated immediately-and indefinitely." Town officials concluded that they had to do something-especially now that the expert they had engaged had put them on notice. They generally agreed that people in the threatened houses should at least be informed of the expert's findings. Most officials thought residents should be encouraged to leave, and some thought they should perhaps ordered to leave-although some continued to have misgivings about taking any action beyond informing them. As one older town official said, ... it's wet every year around here during mud season. People been livin' in houses at the bottom of that hill for two hundred years, and that hillside ain't never slid yet, and probably never will. But, we get some pointy-head up here from Boston, and now everyone is in a flap. The town officials now faced the challenge of determining how best to proceed. Should they merely inform the residents? Encourage them to leave? Order them to leave? If so, how would they know when it was safe to go back? Where would they go? And who should talk to them? As they deliberated, five people emerged as the major candidates to be the spokesperson to the residents of the threatened houses: the mayor the local excavator (who carried out the perc test) the soil engineering professor from Massachusetts the head of the town's volunteer fire department - the local county sheriff (a resident of a neighboring town) In New Hampshire, the state motto-printed proudly on every license plate-is "Live Free or Die." Study Ouestions