Assume that the 'expectations theory' fully explains the Treasury Bond Yield Curve. The 10-year zero-coupon bond maturing
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Question:
Assume that the 'expectations theory' fully explains the Treasury Bond Yield Curve.
The 10-year zero-coupon bond maturing in 2032 has a yield-to-maturity (YTM) of 4%.
Assume that instead of simply buying the 10 year, you decide you will:
buy a 5-year bond today, then, when that bond matures in 2027, then, you will buy a new 5-year bond that starts in 2027 and will mature in 2032.
Scenario A - Upward sloping yield curve.
- if today's 5 year bond has a YTM of 2%, what would the second bond's YTM need to be for you to get a terminal value that would match simply buying the 10 year bond today?
Scenario B - Downward sloping yield curve
- if today's 5 year bond has a YTM of 6%, what would the second bond's YTM need to be for you to get a terminal value that would match simply buying the 10 year bond today?
Bond investors love bad news and dropping interest rates are usually a sign of economic weakness or even recessions.
Which scenario indicates the bond market foresees a bad economy (A or B)?
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