At the end of this exam is a multiple-choice question where each question has exactly two possible
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Question:
At the end of this exam is a multiple-choice question where each question has exactly two possible answers. Assume that a student knows the correct answer to a proportion k of all the questions and makes a random guess for the remaining questions. The instructor grading this exam observes that question two is correctly answered (Z 2 = correct) by this student. What was the probability that the student was guessing based on this observation? Derive the formula for the conditional probability and calculate the actual percentage for k = 0.5
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