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Evaluate Project Using NPV Analysis annual benefits = $15 Mil First year benefits = $15 Mil Good result (prob = .5) Invest $100 Mil in ERP now T=0 Bad result (prob = .5) First year benefits = $2 Mil year annual benefits = $2 Mil T=1 T=2, 3, 4,..... Problem Solution SIMPLE EXAMPLE: A company must decide whether to invest $100 Million in developing and implementing a new enterprise system in the face of considerable technological and market (demand for product and market share) uncertainty. The firm's cost of capital is 10%. 1. Evaluate Using NPV Analysis There can be a good and bad result for this investment. Good Result: A good result has a probability of .5 of occurring. Here the planned cost reductions have been realized and better integration of the supply chain is possible. These benefits are leveraged by strong market demand for the firm's product. There have also been feedback benefits, the enterprise system has significantly improved perceived quality and service from the customer's point of view. Annual benefits under this scenario equal $15 million in after tax cash flow per year forever. Bad Result: The system proves to be more difficult to implement and improvements in management of the supply chain are less. In addition, the growth in market demand for the product is lower. Annual benefits under this scenario are $2 million in after tax cash flow per year. Using traditional "all or nothing" NPV analysis, we get the following Year 0 (now) cash flows: $-100 million for ERP purchase and implementation Year 1, 2, 3...etc. cash flows (after tax): (a) good result: $+15 million/year (prob. = .5) (b) bad result: $+2 million/year (prob. = .5) Expected annual cash flows for year 1 and forward: $15 mil * .5 + $2 mil * .5 = $7.5 mil + $1 mil = $8.5 mil The value of these expected after tax cash flows (a perpetuity) = $8.5/COC = $8.5/.10 = $85 mil Then the NPV of this investment = $-100 mil + $85 mil = $-15 mil The decision is: DO NOT UNDERTAKE THE INVESTMENT 2. Real Options Approach (all cash flows are after tax) The real options alternative allows for flexibility and the delay of the investment for 1 year. In this case, if we do a pilot project we will be better able to evaluate ERP implementation complexities, achievable supply chain benefits, and the market share our products will achieve. However, the cost of the project will rise to $110 Million ($10 Million this year and $100 Million next year) with the one-year delay and additionally management decides to purchase and implement the financial module in year 1 at a cost of $10 Million (real option). The results are slightly different: Year 0 (now) cash flows: $10 million for the pilot project, the financial module After year 1, if the conditions indicate a good result, the firm will invest the $100 million for the ERP with expected benefits (cash flows) of $15 million annually beginning in year 2. Benefits in year one from the financial module are $1 million. If a bad result is indicated, the firm makes no further investments beyond the financial module, which yield annual benefits of $.5 million in year 1 and each year there after. Here the firm has flexibility and has exercised its option to make no further investments based on better information/knowledge of expected future benefits. Let's evaluate the NPV of this project using the described real option. Present value of cash outflows: $-10 mil - $100 mil/(1+COC) * .5 = -$55.45 mil Present value of expected cash inflows: Good result (expected value): {$1 mil/(1+COC) + [($15 mil/COC)/(1+COC)] }* .5 = $68.64 mil Bad Result (expected value): {$.5 mil/(1+COC) + [($.5 mil/ COC)/(1+COC)] }* .5 = $2.50 mil Total NPV of expected cash inflows = $68.64 mil + $2.50 mil = $71.14 mil NPV of the project = -$55.45 mil + $71.14 mil = $15.69 mil The right decision here is DO THE PILOT PROJECT Real Options Homework Real Options Homework This is an individual assignment. Please refer to Practice Problem I (not the "more difficult" one) in the Session 7 Conference. The assignment is to evaluate both parts, the traditional NPV calculation as well as the Real Options approach. The probability of a successful project (or pilot) is now .7 (instead of .5) and the probability of an unsuccessful project is .3 (instead of .5). Also, the perpetuity in the "bad" case is now $1.5 million per year, not $2 million. What is the expected NPV in each case now? What do you recommend? Why? If you don't know the probability of success for the pilot, is there a value that is critical to your recommendation? Is there a probability of success above or below which you will recommend undertaking the pilot and below or above which you will recommend a go/ no go decision on the underlying project without undertaking a pilot test? Please post your solution in your Assignment Folder by 11:59 PM the last day of Session 10. Problem SIMPLE EXAMPLE: A company must decide whether to invest $100 million in developing and implementing a new enterprise system in the face of considerable technological and market (demand for product and market share) uncertainty. The firm's cost of capital is 10%. 1. Evaluate Using Conventional NPV Analysis There can be a good and bad result for this investment. Good Result: A good result has a probability of .5 of occurring. Here the planned cost reductions have been realized and better integration of the supply chain is possible. These benefits are reinforced by strong market demand for the firm's product. There have also been feedback benefits, the enterprise systems has significantly improved perceived quality and service from the customer's point of view. Annual benefits under this scenario equal $15 million in after tax cash flow per year. Bad Result: The system proves to be more difficult to implement and improvements in management of the supply chain are less. In addition, the growth in market demand for the product is lower. Annual benefits under this scenario are $2 million in after tax cash flow per year. Using traditional "all or nothing" NPV analysis, calculate the expected NPV of the project: Given: Year 0 (now) cash flows: $-100 million for ERP purchase and implementation See the diagram below: NPV Diagram 2. Real Options Approach (all cash flows are after tax) Now, evaluate the investment using managerial flexibility and a real options approach. The real options alternative allows for flexibility and the delay of the investment for 1 year. In this case, if we do a pilot project we will be better able to evaluate ERP implementation complexities, achievable supply chain benefits, and the market share our products will achieve. However, the cost of the project will rise to $110 Million ($10 Million this year and $100 Million next year) with the one-year delay and additionally management decides to purchase and implement the financial module in year 1 at a cost of $10 Million (real option). The results are slightly different: Year 0 (now) cash flows: $10 million for the pilot project, the financial module After year 1, if the conditions indicate a good result, the firm will invest the $100 million for the ERP with expected benefits (cash flows) of $15 million annually (forever) beginning in year 2. Benefits in year one from the financial module are $1 million. If a bad result is indicated, the firm makes no further investments beyond the financial module, which yield annual benefits of $.5 million in year 1 and each year thereafter (forever). Here the firm has flexibility and has exercised its option to make no further investments based on better information and knowledge of expected future benefits. Evaluate the expected NPV of this project using the described real option. Compare the expected NPV using the traditional NPV approach with the expected NPV using real options. What do you conclude in each case? See the diagram below: Real Option Evaluate Project Using Real Options & NPV Analysis Invest $100 Mil: Full ERP Now annual benefits = $15 Mil, start at T=2 First year benefits = $1 Mil Good result (prob = .5) Invest $10 Mil in pilot & wait for more info T=0 Bad result (prob = .5) First year benefits = $.5 Mil year Don't invest any more: annual benefits = $.5 Mil T=1 T=2, 3, 4