U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 19842016 Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes 1984 3,003 1992
Question:
U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1984–2016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes | ||||||||||||||||
1984 | 3,003 | 1992 | 1,513 | 2000 | 3,388 | 2008 | 3,651 | ||||||||||||||||
1985 | 2,601 | 1993 | 1,536 | 2001 | 3,206 | 2009 | 2,157 | ||||||||||||||||
1986 | 2,067 | 1994 | 1,500 | 2002 | 2,779 | 2010 | 1,906 | ||||||||||||||||
1987 | 1,657 | 1995 | 1,649 | 2003 | 2,709 | 2011 | 1,895 | ||||||||||||||||
1988 | 1,784 | 1996 | 1,687 | 2004 | 2,927 | 2012 | 2,088 | ||||||||||||||||
1989 | 2,107 | 1997 | 2,121 | 2005 | 3,429 | 2013 | 2,187 | ||||||||||||||||
1990 | 1,716 | 1998 | 2,772 | 2006 | 3,719 | 2014 | 2,203 | ||||||||||||||||
1991 | 1,593 | 1999 | 3,076 | 2007 | 3,851 | 2015 | 2,164 | ||||||||||||||||
Click here for the Excel Data File
(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
Plot A | Plot B | Plot C | Plot D |
Plot A
Plot B
Plot C
Plot D
(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. Hint: What economic factors affect major capital investments? (You may select more than one answer. Click the box with a check mark for the correct answer and double click to empty the box for the wrong answer.)
The factors affecting major capital investments:
- Business cyclesunanswered
- Interest ratesunanswered
- Foreign demandunanswered
- Forecastingunanswered
(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
(Click to select) Yes No , there is (Click to select) clear no clear trend over the past 30 years.
(d) Fit a moving average (e.g., period 2) to the data. Is it useful?
(Click to select) Yes No , a two year or three year moving average would be an (Click to select) acceptable unacceptable forecasting method for this time series.
(e) Make a forecast for 2016 using a method of your choice (including a judgment forecast). Justify your method. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)
Discovering Advanced Algebra An Investigative Approach
ISBN: 978-1559539845
1st edition
Authors: Jerald Murdock, Ellen Kamischke, Eric Kamischke