Back Forecasting ProblemData.xls 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 S Actual 573.76 1,004.08 717.2 1,075.8 1,075.8 932.36 1,290.96 1,219.24 932.36 1,219.24 1,219.24 1,075.8 1,649.56 1,649.56 1,434.4 1,219.24 1,290.96 1,577.84 1,793 1,721.28 1,577.84 1,864.72 1,434.4 1,793 1,864.72 1,506.12 1,649.56 1,506.12 1,721.28 1,506.12 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Question 1 2 pts Plot the data. Just by looking at the plot, do you think a 3-week simple moving average would be a better forecast or a 6-week simple moving average? (You are only required to plot the original data, you don't need to plot the forecasts.) 3-week simple moving average 6-week simple moving average cannot tell which one is better Calculate the MAD for four of the possible forecasts and answer the following five questions. The possible forecasts are 3-week Moving Average; 6-week Moving Average; Exponential Soothing with a = 0.2; Exponential Soothing with a = 0.6. (For the exponential smoothing method, assume the forecast for the first week is 600) Question 2 1 pts What is the MAD using the 3-week moving average? Report an integer. Question 3 1 pts What is the MAD using the 6-week moving average? Report an integer. Question 4 1 pts What is the MAD using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2? Report an integer. Question 5 1 pts What is the MAD using exponential smoothing with a = 0.6? Report an integer Question 6 1 pts Among the four possible forecasts, which one do you think is better? 3-week moving average 6-week moving average Exponential smoothing with a .0.2 Exponential smoothing with a -0.6