Background: During Cold War, Plous (1993) presented readers with the following test (question to their readers): Review the two alternatives, and the readers were told to select the one statement that seems most likely to occur within the next 10 years (remember this was in 1993):

1. An all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia.
2. An all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia in which neither country intends to use nuclear weapons, but both sides are drawn into the conflict by the actions of a country such as Iraq, Libya, Israel, or Pakistan. Question 1: Using your intuition, which is the more likely event at that time? Be complete in which option (include the full statement of choice, not just a letter) and state your reason for your answer (Explain why you think that was the case). Question 2: Now consider the probability rules discussed in Chapter 16, which option/statement was actually more likely. (Explain with some depth).