Base your initial forecast on a 4 month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data in the table below, using the weights: 9, 6, 4, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Then forecast the same data based on utilizing exponential smoothing with and alpha of .27, and an initial forecast of 37.

Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	Jun
38	36	40	45	53	49	57	60

a. What is the forecast for July using a 4-month weighted moving, average forecast?

b. What is the MAD of the weighted moving average forecast?

c. What is the forecast based on exponential smoothing?

d. What is the MAD of the exponential smoothing forecast?

e. If a change occurred and if you are now only evaluating from January onward using exponential smoothing (alpha .53). and January's forecast at 38, what is the new forecast for July? And the MAD?

f. Given all 3 options, what forecasting method would you choose?