Question: Based on available data, geologists assign a 20% chance that there is oil at the site. Seismic testing to identify structures that may contain oil.
Based on available data, geologists assign a 20% chance that there is oil at the site. Seismic testing to identify structures that may contain oil. Results of the test: 90% of wet sites have detectable structures, but 60% of dry sites also have these structures. Cost of the test: $2.5M. Do you want to run the test? Suppose that your geologists estimate that half of the wet sites have structures that can be detected by the seismic test. However, half of the dry sites also have these structures. How much are you willing to pay for these tests. Form a decision tree and find the EVSI.
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