Bayes Net Reasoning (4%) [4%] Consider the following Covid network C S P(SIC) 0.8 0.2 0.75...

Transcribed Image Text:

Bayes Net Reasoning (4%) [4%] Consider the following Covid network C S P(SIC) 0.8 0.2 0.75 0.25 +C +5 +C -S +S -C -C -S C +C +C P(C) 0.1 0.9 Suffering Covid PCR C +C +C +C +C -C -C -C -C Antigen Test S +S S +5 -S -S +5 +S -S -S P +p -P +p -P +p -P +p -P C +C +C -C A +a 0.3 0.55 0.45 0.15 0.85 -a +a -C -a P(PIC,S) 0.9 0.1 0.7 P(A/C) 0.95 0.05 0.25 0.75 Answer the following questions (up to 3 decimal points): a) (1%) - What is the probability of having Covid and getting a positive PCT test? P(+c, +p) = Hint: Please review variable elimination slides as there is a variable here that needs to be eliminated (i.e., summed out) to calculate the above probability b) (1%) - What is the probability of not having Covid and getting a positive PCR test? P(-c, +p) = Same hint as above applies c) (1%) - Conditional probability review - What is the probability of having Covid given that the PCRŢtest has been positive P(+c|+p) = Hint: Conditional probability slides and formula review d) (1%) - Bayes theorem review: What is the probability of having Covid given that the Antigen test has been positive? P(+c|+a)= SM Bayes Net Reasoning (4%) [4%] Consider the following Covid network C S P(SIC) 0.8 0.2 0.75 0.25 +C +5 +C -S +S -C -C -S C +C +C P(C) 0.1 0.9 Suffering Covid PCR C +C +C +C +C -C -C -C -C Antigen Test S +S S +5 -S -S +5 +S -S -S P +p -P +p -P +p -P +p -P C +C +C -C A +a 0.3 0.55 0.45 0.15 0.85 -a +a -C -a P(PIC,S) 0.9 0.1 0.7 P(A/C) 0.95 0.05 0.25 0.75 Answer the following questions (up to 3 decimal points): a) (1%) - What is the probability of having Covid and getting a positive PCT test? P(+c, +p) = Hint: Please review variable elimination slides as there is a variable here that needs to be eliminated (i.e., summed out) to calculate the above probability b) (1%) - What is the probability of not having Covid and getting a positive PCR test? P(-c, +p) = Same hint as above applies c) (1%) - Conditional probability review - What is the probability of having Covid given that the PCRŢtest has been positive P(+c|+p) = Hint: Conditional probability slides and formula review d) (1%) - Bayes theorem review: What is the probability of having Covid given that the Antigen test has been positive? P(+c|+a)= SM

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

a To calculate the probability of having Covid and getting a positive PCT test Pc p we need to sum o... View the full answer