Bayes' Rule Example: Machine setup; if correct there is a 10% chance of a defective part; if incorrect, a 40% chance of a defective part.50% chance setup will be correct or incorrect. What is probability that machine setup is incorrect if a sample part is defective? Expected Value Example: Machines break down 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 times per month. Let the Random Variable x = Number of Breakdowns Xi P(Xi) Expected value of number of 0 .10 breakdowns per month = 20 .30 AWN .25 .15 1.00