Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics.

A B C D E F

$1$ Market size $1,000,000$

$2$ Unit $($monthly Rx$)$ revenue $$50\mathrm{.}00$

$3$ Unit $($monthly Rx$)$ cost $$20\mathrm{.}00$

$4$ Discount rate $8\%$

$5$

$6$ Project costs

$7$ R&D $$50,000,000$

$8$ Clinical Trials $$90,000,000$

$9$

$10$ Model

$11$

$12$ Year $12345$

$13$ Market growth factor $20\%20\%20\%20\%$

$14$ Market size

$15$ Market share growth rate $20\%20\%20\%20\%$

$16$ Market share $7\%$

Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model:

Market size: normal with mean of $1,000,000$ units and standard deviation of $300,000$ units.

R&D costs: uniform between $$40,000,000$ and $$60,000,000.$

Clinical trial costs: normal with mean of $$90,000,000$ and standard deviation $$2,000,000.$

Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum $=15\%,$ maximum $=25\%,$ and most likely $=20\%.$

Run the simulation for $5,000$ trials and answer the following questions.

What cumulative profit in the fourth year is likely to be realized with a probability of $0\mathrm{.}20?[$Choose the nearest answer.$]$