Question: Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. JA Trance Electronics B D Data 1 2 3 14 15 16 Market size Unit (monthly Rx) revenue

 Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. JA Trance Electronics B

Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. JA Trance Electronics B D Data 1 2 3 14 15 16 Market size Unit (monthly Rx) revenue Unit (monthly Rx) cost Discount rate 20,000,000 $ 120.00 $ 50.00 896 7 18 19 10 111 12 13 14 15 16 Project costs R&D Clinical Trials Total Project Costs 750,000,000 $ 100,000,000 Model 17 Year 12 3 15 18 Market growth factor 1496 496 496 1496 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 1896 1896 1896 1896 21 Market share 796 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 129 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. What is the expected loss ratio obtained from the simulation results of the net present value? O 72.45% O 93.5096 0 86.3296 O 67.3296 Below is a spreadsheet for Trance Electronics. JA Trance Electronics B D Data 1 2 3 14 15 16 Market size Unit (monthly Rx) revenue Unit (monthly Rx) cost Discount rate 20,000,000 $ 120.00 $ 50.00 896 7 18 19 10 111 12 13 14 15 16 Project costs R&D Clinical Trials Total Project Costs 750,000,000 $ 100,000,000 Model 17 Year 12 3 15 18 Market growth factor 1496 496 496 1496 19 Market size 20 Market share growth rate 1896 1896 1896 1896 21 Market share 796 22 Sales 23 24 Annual revenue 25 Annual costs 26 Profit 27 Cumulative net profit 28 129 Net present value Suppose that the project manager of Trance Electronics has identified the following uncertain variables in the model and the distributions and parameters that describe them, as follows: Market size: normal with mean of 20,000,000 units and standard deviation of 4,000,000 units. R&D costs: uniform between $600,000,000 and $800,000,000. Clinical trial costs: lognormal with mean of $150,000,000 and standard deviation $30,000,000. Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%, maximum = 6%, and most likely = 3%. Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%, maximum = 25%, and most likely = 20%. The number of trials per simulation is equal to 10,000 at a Sim. Random Seed of 2. Run the simulation and answer the following questions using the Risk Solver Platform. What is the expected loss ratio obtained from the simulation results of the net present value? O 72.45% O 93.5096 0 86.3296 O 67.3296

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