C12 fix A B E F G H 1 1 2 D Table of Contents Exponential Smoothing a = .35 5 Period Moving Average WMA (.5, .3, 15, .05) 107.75 107.45 116.12 15790.89 15634.43 18304.84 4.87% 4.85% 5.25% 3 MAD 4 MSE 5 Period MA has the lowest error over the forecasted periods. We would choose this method over the other two. MAPE 5 6 7 8 8 9 Week 53 Forecast 2222.00 2240.00 2195.50 10 11 12 13 Actual Sales & Forecasted Demand (Weeks 1-53) 14 2500 15 2400 16 Notice that forecasts are smoother than actual demand signal. 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 co 21 27 28 29 30 31 32 1800 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 17 19 51 53 15 Actual Sales Exponential Smoothing a = 0.35 -5 Period Moving Average -Weighted Moving Average B D J L M N o 1 Table of Contents F G H I 1. Create 3 forecasts using all available data and the methods specified below. 2. Produce a graph showing all 3 forecasts and the actual demand over time. 3. Calculate MAD, MSE & MAPE for each forecast and recommend which forecast is the most accurate. 2 4 5 Forecast Method Exponential Smoothing a = 0.35 Forecast Method 5 Period Moving Average Forecast Method Weighted Moving Average (.5,-3, .15, .05) 6 Week 7 1 8 2 9 3 10 4 11 5 Actual Sales 2168 2217 2315 2384 2222 2352 2154 2029 2129 2217 2223 12 6 13 7 14 8 15 9 10 16 17 11 18 12 2234 19 13 20 14 21 15 2362 2222 2156 2090 2047 2117 22 16 23 17 18 24 Please explain your answers. Thanks