C33 x & fx B E 3 4 Input Modeling in Drug Development Cost of Drug Development 5 Revenue 6 7 Effectiveness Market Share Revenue per person Number of People 8 9 10 11 Cost Total Revenue 12 13 16 17 Total Profit * A drug company is planning to invest in a new drug. The cost of research has a uniform 15 distribution on $300,000 to $500,000. There is a 40% chance that the drug will not be effective, in which case there will be no sales. If the drug is effective, then the total market for the drug is 400,000 people. The company expects their share of the market to have a triangular distribution with minimum 5%, maximum 30%, and most likely 20% of 20 the people. For each person who uses the new drug, the company expects to make $100 21 in sales during the first year. The drug company would like to know the distribution of 22 profit they can expect from undertaking this investment 18 23 24 C33 x & fx B E 3 4 Input Modeling in Drug Development Cost of Drug Development 5 Revenue 6 7 Effectiveness Market Share Revenue per person Number of People 8 9 10 11 Cost Total Revenue 12 13 16 17 Total Profit * A drug company is planning to invest in a new drug. The cost of research has a uniform 15 distribution on $300,000 to $500,000. There is a 40% chance that the drug will not be effective, in which case there will be no sales. If the drug is effective, then the total market for the drug is 400,000 people. The company expects their share of the market to have a triangular distribution with minimum 5%, maximum 30%, and most likely 20% of 20 the people. For each person who uses the new drug, the company expects to make $100 21 in sales during the first year. The drug company would like to know the distribution of 22 profit they can expect from undertaking this investment 18 23 24