Calculate the absolute forecast errors for ES with and for Feb to Apr.

b$.$ i$.$ Compute $($in Excel$)$ the absolute forecast errors for ES with and for Feb

to Sep.

ii$.$ Compute the two mean absolute deviations $($MAD$),$ and determine which $\backslash$alpha will likely

result in a more accurate forecast.

Month Usage ES$\mathrm{.}2$

Forecast

ES$\mathrm{.}9$

Forecast

ES$\mathrm{.}2$ Abs. Forecast

Error

ES$\mathrm{.}9$ Abs. Forecast

Error

Jan $2$

Feb $52\mathrm{.}002\mathrm{.}00$

Mar $102\mathrm{.}604\mathrm{.}70$

Apr $44\mathrm{.}089\mathrm{.}47$

May $124\mathrm{.}064\mathrm{.}55$

Jun $05\mathrm{.}6511\mathrm{.}25$

Jul $84\mathrm{.}521\mathrm{.}13$

Aug $165\mathrm{.}227\mathrm{.}31$

Sep $47\mathrm{.}3715\mathrm{.}13$

Oct

MAD:

$2\mathrm{.}0$

$9\mathrm{.}0$

$$

$2\mathrm{.}0$

$9\mathrm{.}0$

$$