can you help me$?$

Exercise $1$

Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine$-$month

period $($January through September$).$ Your supervisor wants to test

two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this

period.

Exercise $1$

Forecast April through September using a three$-$month moving

average.

Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}2$ to estimate

April through September, using the average of January through March

as the initial forecast for April.

Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over

the six$-$month period

Exercise $2$

A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six$-$month period. Here are

the forecasts and actual demands that resulted:

Find the tracking signal and state whether you think the model being used is giving

acceptable answers.