CASE ANALYSIS

You are expected to identify your best forecasting techniques and its smoothing constants and then

develop a forecast for the demand for bikes for year $6.$ Bear in mind that you will use the forecast to

develop a Sales and Operations Plan $($and$,$ later, a Master Production Schedule$).$ production plan and a

master production schedule.

Be prepared to consider at least two potential forecasting models and two error functions $($one for bias

and another of your choice$).$ You need to provide justification for your choice of models and the error

functions used in deciding on the smoothing constants and model selection. Also, use the data for the

first $4$ years to initialize your model parameters, and the $5^{th}$ year data for parameter tuning and model

selection $($revise the model after each forecast$).$

Write a detailed report in MS Word to give the details of your calculations, analysis and results.