Case Problem: Forecasting Airport Passenger Arrivals

Since the terrorist attacks of$(9)/(11)$ and because of the ensuing measures to increase airline security, airports have faced the problem of long waiting lines and waiting times at security gates. Waiting lines can be as long as hundreds of yards, and waiting times can sometimes be hours. In their efforts to reduce waiting lines and times, or at least to not have them become longer as airline demand increases, airports have analyzed their existing security systems and sought quantitative solutions. One of the key components of any effort to operationally improve airport security procedures is forecasting passenger arrivals at security checkpoints to determine how many security checkpoints and staff are needed. At Berry International Airport $($BEI$),$ security analysts would like to forecast passenger arrivals for next July, the airport$$s busiest travel month of the year, for the purpose of determining how many security checkpoints they should staff during the month so that waiting lines and times will not be excessively long. Demand for airline travel has generally been increasing during the past $3$ years. There are two main concourses at BEI, North and South, each serving different airlines. The following table shows passenger arrivals at the South concourse for $10$ days $($selected randomly$)$ in $2-$hour segments from $4$:$00$ a$.$m$.$ to $10$:$00$ p$.$m$.$ for the month of July for the past $3$ years.

Develop a forecast for daily passenger arrivals at the South concourse at BEI for each time period for July of year $4.$ Discuss the various forecast model variations that might be used to develop this forecast.

One $12400270032001400170018001600800200$

$21900250031001600180020001800900300$

$323003100250015001500180019001100200$

$422003200310022001900240021001200400$

$524003300340017002200210020001000600$

$626002800350015001700190015001100300$

$71900280031001200150020001400900400$

$820002700250015002000230019001000200$

$924003200360016002100250018001400200$

$102600330031002002500260024001100400$

Year Two $1131003900410022002600230025001100300$

$1228003400390019002100250020001200300$

$1327003800430021002400240024001200400$

$1424003500410024003000320026001200700$

$1533003700400026002600270029001000300$

$163500400038002300270031003000900200$

$1729004100390024003000320025001100500$

$1834003800420020002500300022001000300$

$1936003600400023002600280026001200200$

$2037003700400022002600270024001200200$

Year Three $2144004400450026003300340030001200400$

$2242004500430025003400360031001400300$

$2345004500470027003400350029001200300$

$2446004600460025003200350028001300300$

$2545004300440029003300330033001500400$

$2642004300450030004000340030001500600$

$2745004500510033004000370031001200300$

$2843004200430028003500400033001100400$

$2949004100420031003600390034001400500$

$3047004500410030004000370034001200500$