CASE STUDY 1 MBA 6050: QUANTITATIVE REASONING AND ANALYSIS FALL 2024 (Online) PROBLEM DESCRIPTION: As with most financial institutions, Foggyview Credit Union is very concerned with the cost of short-term and long-term borrowing. One important interest rate measure that incorporates long-term expectations is the ten-year bond vield. The longer maturity incorporates how consumers view future economic conditions rather than short-term economic fluctuations. The Excel data set named \"Ten Year Yields Project Data\" provides daily values starting on January 2, 1962 (in the first column this is designated as 1/2/1962) through August 7, 2024 (or 8/7/2024). The variable TREND simply indicates the day number in the data set and this shows there are 15636 daily observations. In addition to the first task, Foggyview Credit Union has become aware that you have training in forecasting. They would like vou to forecast values of the Ten Year Bond Yields for the next 30 days. The table below provides a portion of the data set: Month/Date/Year INTEREST TREND 1/2/1962 4.06 1 1/3/1962 4.03 2 1/4/1962 3.99 3 1/5/1962 4.02 4 8/2/2024 3.80 15633 8/5/2024 3.78 15634 8/6/2024 3.90 15635 8/7/2024 3.96 15636 MANAGERIAL REPORT: Utilize the forecasting techniques discussed in lectures to provide the forecast requested. At a minimum, your report should include the following: 1. A discussion of the data as well as an overall discussion of the forecasting techniques utilized as well as how you selected your optimal model. 2. A tabular presentation of the forecast and a discussion of the results. The report may include graphs and illustration, but not any Excel or Megastat output. ORGANIZATION OF REPORT: There should be a cover page for the report. The report should begin with a statement of the purpose of the report. = 3 There should be a conclusion summarizing the report findings. The primary section of the report will conduct the analysis (presentation of data and information). REPORT SUBMISSION: The report should be submitted by October 20 on D2L as a pdf or Word document. GRADING RUBRIC: The following serves as a guide to how this case study will be graded: | [Exceptiomal [ Average | Appearance/Grammar | Report looks professional Report has some Report 15 not professional (cover page and visually appearance flaws (no looking and is replete with appealing) and there are no cover page or less than grammatical errors. (0-9) (or very few) grammatical professional appearance) errors (15) and a significant number of grammatical errors. (10) Description and Provides a complete and Provides a partial but Provides an incomplete, Introduction of accurate description of the mostly accurate unclear. or inaccurate Purpose key subject matter and description of the subject descrip;;ion of subject matter elements to be accomplished | matter and/or elements to | gnd/or elements relevant to in the study. (15) be covered in the study, the study; many key some key components components overlooked. (0- overlooked. (10) 9) Analysis/Graphical and | Exceptional analysis of data Poor analysis of data and Tabular Presentation and presentation of tables. A | Limited proficiency in missing information (0-19) complete forecasting analysis | analyzing quantitative is provided. Very clear material provided. presentation. (50) Analysis 1s good but not complete. (20-40) Conclusion/Summary | Fully summarizes the results | Provides a reasonable Provides an incomplete presented in the analytical summary of the analysis | summary of work and does section and successfully ties | section but misses a few | not link concluding remarks concluding remarks to the key points and does not to the original purpose. (0-9) purpose of the case study. successfully link (20) concluding remarks to the pose of this stud Total score Total points awarded will be prorated in order to match the point totals provided in the syllabus