Case Study $5\mathrm{.}1$ Balanced Decision$-$Making

What does a balanced decision look like and how does it come about? This example comes from our research $($Gressel$,2020)$ and demonstrates how judgment and analytics can work together throughout a strategic decision$-$making process.

A company in the transport industry wanted to explore a new business segment. They hired a former Head of Operations who had experience in this business segment. The CEO wanted this new Business Development Manager to determine whether there was a strategic opportunity for the company to break into this new market. He went to work and basically relied on his experience and judgment during the identification stage and the initial stages of development including his preliminary assessment of opportunities and risks. The second part of the development phase led to a pilot project and the start of a formal business case process. Internal company data was gathered during this pilot and was used to develop the case. What was also critical during this pilot stage was that the Business Development Manager heavily consulted with his former business, gathering information based on their experience and knowledge. Through this pilot period the team, led by the manager, would go back and forth between the data they collected, the original assumptions about the opportunities and risks of the new venture, and the judgment of the former colleagues. They decided the business case was solid and based on it began a full nationwide launch of the new business segment, eventually becoming a big player in the new business segment.

In this case, the pilot began with both domain$-$specific knowledge and experience and data from their existing business. In this balanced approach, data was used to support judgments and to mitigate risk. As the pilot developed and after the launch was initiated, the company accessed market data collected by external agencies. The data reinforced what they were learning from their customers and the customers were corroborating what the data was indicating. The result of this balanced decision$-$making was strategic decision$-$making success.

Questions to think about

Identify and discuss the roles of judgment and analytics as they were used in this case.

What other roles of analytics and judgment could have been used to achieve a similar success with such a strategic decision?

Discuss whether$/$how this decision process and outcome could be improved.