Case Study $5\mathrm{.}1.$ Determining Bed Demand for Cardiac Patients Aged $6584$

The Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center is a $747-$bed hospital located in Richmond, Virginia, which had a population of $228,783$ in $2017.$ As vice president of planning, suppose that you are responsible for projecting bed size in a new hospital tower that is scheduled for construction in $2022.$ Determining bed demand is a complex process that involves consideration of: $(1)$ the service area from which the hospital draws, $(2)$ use rates for various kinds of medical and surgical conditions, $(3)$ service lines, and $(4)$ bed utilization. To simplify the analysis, you are concerned only with the group aged $6584,$ and only with medical and surgical treatment for coronary heart disease $($CHD$).$ Obviously the analysis can be extended to all age groups, and to all medical and surgical conditions, and then aggregated to derive a total estimate of bed demand. Assume that we have a service area of $60,000$ people aged $6584$ from which the hospital draws patients. The care can be broken up into primary $(75$ to $80$ percent of admissions$),$ secondary $(10$ to $15$ percent of admissions$),$ and tertiary $(5$ to $10$ percent of admissions$)$ service areas, each with distinct use rates that reflect underlying demographic characteristics. Assume that you use $2017$ utilization rates to project bed demand to $2022$ and that the population in the service area is expected to grow by $18$ percent to $70,800$ in $2022$ and by $36$ percent to $81,600$ in $2027.$

Question: Assuming the use rate remains the same for CHD patients aged $64-84,$ how many patient days can be anticipated in $2022?$ in $2027?$