Case Study: Forecasting Model

The ABC Corporation specializes in selling phones. The ABC Corporation is looking to launch a

new line of phones in three states $($CA$,$ NY$,$ NJ$).$ Upon purchase, the customer will receive $6-$

months of cellular service with the opportunity to renew their policy after $6-$months.

You$$ve been provided historical data on a similar product launched by a competitor. Included

are how many phones each sales representative sold from $2018-2021$ and the percent of

customers that renewed after $6-$months of binding $($retention$).$

ABC corp. has asked you to establish a forecasting methodology using available sources of data

to estimate sales of the new product. This forecasting model will be used to estimate the

number of phones sold and how many of those customers we expect to retain.

$$ Demonstrate your understanding of the situation

$$ List your assumptions

$$ Present your approach

$$ Provide your final conclusions

production data

Seller # State $2019\mathrm{.}012019\mathrm{.}022019\mathrm{.}032019\mathrm{.}042019\mathrm{.}052019\mathrm{.}062019\mathrm{.}072019\mathrm{.}082019\mathrm{.}092019\mathrm{.}102019\mathrm{.}112019\mathrm{.}122020\mathrm{.}012020\mathrm{.}022020\mathrm{.}032020\mathrm{.}042020\mathrm{.}052020\mathrm{.}062020\mathrm{.}072020\mathrm{.}082020\mathrm{.}092020\mathrm{.}102020\mathrm{.}112020\mathrm{.}122021\mathrm{.}012021\mathrm{.}022021\mathrm{.}032021\mathrm{.}042021\mathrm{.}052021\mathrm{.}062021\mathrm{.}072021\mathrm{.}082021\mathrm{.}092021\mathrm{.}102021\mathrm{.}112021\mathrm{.}122022\mathrm{.}012022\mathrm{.}022022\mathrm{.}032022\mathrm{.}042022\mathrm{.}052022\mathrm{.}062022\mathrm{.}072022\mathrm{.}082022\mathrm{.}092022\mathrm{.}102022\mathrm{.}112022\mathrm{.}12$

$1$ CA $793767860766814802790881789840804778634614688613651642632705631672643622507491550490521514506564505538514498406393440392417411405$

$2$ CA $208201226201213210207231207220211204166161181161170168166185166176169163133129145129136134133148133141135130106103116103109107106$

$3$ CA $598579649578614605596665596634607587478463519462491484477532477507486470382370415370393387382426382406389376306296332296314310306$

$4$ CA $287278312278295291286319286305291282230222250222236233229255229244233226184178200178189186183204183195186181147142160142151149146$

$5$ NY $300290325290308303298333298318304294270261293261277273268300268286274265243235264235249246241270241257247239219212238212224221217$

$6$ CA $874846949845898885871972871927887858699677759676718708697778697742710686559542607541574566558622558594568549447434486433459453446$

$7$ NJ $679657737656697687676754676719688666713690774689732721710792710755722699749725813723769757746832746793758734786761854759807795783$

$8$ NY