CASE STUDY THREE: SCENARIO PLANNING $$ A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT TOOL

Consider the Electric Vehicle $($EV$)$ industry, which is currently undergoing rapid changes and innovation. The EV industry is particularly suitable for scenario planning due to its dynamic nature, influenced by technological advancements, regulatory changes, consumer behaviour, and environmental concerns. This case identifies two critical uncertainties in the EV industry. The PDBA Integrated Management Practice student is required to develop four plausible future scenarios based on these critical uncertainties, and in so doing, apply strategic thinking to the dynamic and uncertain environment of the EV industry.

Critical Uncertainties in the EV Industry

Regulatory Environment: The degree of government support and regulation for electric vehicles, which includes subsidies, tax incentives, and mandates for EV production and sales.

Technological Advancement $($Battery Technology and Infrastructure Development$)$: The pace of advancement in battery technology and the expansion of EV charging infrastructure, which impacts vehicle performance, cost, and convenience.

QUESTION $8[20$ MARKS$]$

Use the two critical uncertainties, given above, to develop four plausible scenarios towards $2030.$ The Scenarios should be drafted on the Cartesian Plane as follows:

NOTE #$1$: $[$THE FOLLOWING CARTESIAN PLANE STRUCTURE IS COMPULSORY FOR DEVELOPING YOUR FOUR SCENARIOS... IF YOU DO NOT FOLLOW THIS STRUCTURE, YOUR RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS $9$ TO $13$ WILL BE WRONG$]$:

Use the y$-$axis for Regulatory Environment

Use the x$-$axis for Technological Advancement

$(+)$y$-$axis and $(+)$x$-$axis $=$ Scenario $1$

$(+)$y$-$axis and $(-)$x$-$axis $=$ Scenario $2$

$(-)$y$-$axis and $(-)$x$-$axis $=$ Scenario $3$

$(-)$y$-$axis and $(+)$x$-$axis $=$ Scenario $4$

NOTE #$2$: $[$Each of the four scenarios weigh $5$ marks. Therefore Question $8$ in total, is $20$ Marks$]$

Question $9[5$ MARKS$]$

Discuss how $$Scenario $1$ would impact global automotive manufacturers' strategic planning and investment priorities.

Question $10[5$ marks$]$

Analyse the potential challenges and opportunities for new entrants in the EV market under $$Scenario $2.$

Question $11[5$ marks$]$

Describe the potential impact of $$Scenario $3$ on global efforts to reduce carbon emissions from personal transportation.

Question $12[5$ MARKS$]$

How should governments and international bodies respond to $$Scenario $3$ to encourage a faster transition to sustainable transportation?

Question $13[5$ MARKS$]$

Evaluate the role of consumer behaviour in shaping the EV market in $$Scenario $4.$