CASE: The Emergency Room $($ER$)$ at Northwest General $($A$)$

Kostich is the new department director for emergency serto ensure proper ing nurses to for the appropriate shifts. This has historically been a probon forecasts, but used the same fixed schedule week after week.

Jenn had recently received her degree in operations management. She knew that schedules needed to be based on forecasts

of demand. She needed to start by analyzing historical data in order to determine the best forecasting method to use. Jenn's assistant provided her with information on patient arrivals in the ER by hour and day of the week for the previous month, October. October was considered a typical month for the ER$,$ and Jenn thought it was a good starting point. Jenn reviewed the information $($shown in the chart$)$ that she had requested and wondered where to begin.

Hourly Patient Arrivals in the ER

Case Questions

What is your opinion of the level at which the data are being collected? What are some of the advantages of collecting data at this level?

Aggregate the original data for October as you see appropriate $($e$.$g$.,$ sum up by day of week, time of day, week of the

month, etc.$).$ This will give you a new data set to work with. Analyze your data for patterns. Can you find any?

Use at least two different forecasting models on the new data set you developed in question $2$ by aggregating the original data. Compare their forecast performance and provide an evaluation.CASE: The Emergency Room $($ER$)$ at Northwest General $($A$)$

Kostich is the new department director for emergency serto ensure proper ing nurses to for the appropriate shifts. This has historically been a probon forecasts, but used the same fixed schedule week after week.

Jenn had recently received her degree in operations management. She knew that schedules needed to be based on forecasts

of demand. She needed to start by analyzing historical data in order to determine the best forecasting method to use. Jenn's assistant provided her with information on patient arrivals in the ER by hour and day of the week for the previous month, October. October was considered a typical month for the ER$,$ and Jenn thought it was a good starting point. Jenn reviewed the information $($shown in the chart$)$ that she had requested and wondered where to begin.

Hourly Patient Arrivals in the ER

Case Questions

What is your opinion of the level at which the data are being collected? What are some of the advantages of collecting data at this level?

Aggregate the original data for October as you see appropriate $($e$.$g$.,$ sum up by day of week, time of day, week of the

month, etc.$).$ This will give you a new data set to work with. Analyze your data for patterns. Can you find any?

Use at least two different forecasting models on the new data set you developed in question $2$ by aggregating the original data. Compare their forecast performance and provide an evaluation.