Question: Challenge 3: Advanced Quantitative Forecasting Models 3.1 Feb. predicted demand for Ford Mustangs is 104 units. Feb. actual demand is 88 units. Using a smoothing

Challenge 3: Advanced Quantitative Forecasting Models

3.1 Feb. predicted demand for Ford Mustangs is 104 units. Feb. actual demand is 88 units. Using a smoothing constant alpha =.20, please forecast March demand for Mustangs based on the exponential smoothing method.

3.2 The number of pints of Type A blood used at St. Joseph Hospital over 6 weeks last year is given in the following table. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12^th using exponential smoothing. Use Alpha values of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3. Start the method using a two-period moving average of August 31 and September 7^th. Compute the bias, MAD, and Standard Deviation based on each Alpha value. What is the best Alpha value?

Week ofPints Used31-Aug3607-Sep38914-Sep41021-Sep38128-Sep3685-Oct374

3.3 Based on the data provided below, what is your sales forecast for Month 3 based on exponential smoothing with the trend method? Please use 10.36 as the exponentially smoothed forecast for Month 1 and 2.55 as the smoothed trend for Month 1 to start your calculation. Please provide calculation steps. Your team will NOT receive full credit if you only provide a final number.

MonthDemandSmoothed ForecastSmoothed TrendForecast Including Trend11210.362.55 217 320 419 524 621 731 828 936 10

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