Chapler 7 Managing Miss 247 Time in Workdays Optimistic Most Likely Dur. Dur. Pessimistic Dur. Immediate Predecessor Task Name Critical Path 1 54 0.5 6 12 12 2 3 4 5 6 68 1 7 14 92 1.5 8 16 2 2 18 5 21 7 30 9 1 2 6 7 13 17 14 21 21 25 2 9 ca AET DATA CENTER MIGRATION Team meeting Hire contractors Network design Ventilation system Order ventilation system Install ventilation system New racks Ordeincs racks Install racks Power supplies and cables Order power supplies & cables Install power supplies Install cables Renovation of data center Cily inspection Switchover Meetings Facilities Operations/systems Operations/telecommunications Systems & applications Customer service Power check Install test servers Management safety check Primary systems check Seldale for move Complete move 6 5 6 19 7 5 8 20 8 11 10 27 3 2 12, 16 12, 16 3,4 3.7, 10 1 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 18 40 19 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 5 0.5 5 6 9 a 9 8 13 13 1.5 9 3 2.5 1 14 14 14 14 14 13, 14, 15 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 7,23,24 25 26 27 1 7 2 2 1.5 1 1 1 1 2 3 Careful planning was needed because AET operates in the highly competitive petroleum industry. AET is one of five national software companies that provide an accounting and business management package for oil jobbers and gasoline distribu- tors. A few years ago, AET jumped into the "application service provider" world. Their large data center provides clients with remote access to AET's complete suite of application software systems. Traditionally, one of AET's primary competitive advan- tages has been the company's trademark IT reliability. Due to the complexity of this project, the Executive Committee insisted that preliminry analysis of the anticipated completion date be conducted. Brian compiled the following information, in preparation for some PERT analysis: 1. Based on these estimates and the resultant expected project duration of 69 days, the executive committee wants to know what the probability is of completing the proj- ect before a scheduled time (T) of 68 days. 2. The significance of this project has the executive committee very concerned. The com- mittee has decided that more analysis of the duration of each activity is needed. Prior to conducting that effort, they asked Brian to calculate what the expected project dura- tion would have to be to ensure a 93 percent chance of completion within 68 days