Chapter $3-$ Forecasting Homework $-35$ pts

Information: Extra Credit $-$ Any observations on model such as trend, fit, and accuracy?

Below is the air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past $18$ weeks

a$)$ Create a Graph to show the $18$ weeks of historical data $($first two columns$)$

b$)$ Add a trendline and show the equation for the data and r$-$squared using Excel functionality

c$)$ Use the trendline equation to generate a forecast for the next $18$ weeks $($weeks $19-36)$

d$)$ Calculate the FE$,$ MAD, and MAPE

Historical Our Forecast What Actually Happened HOW GOOD IS OUR MODEL?

Week Passengers Week

Trendline

Forecast for

weeks $19-36$

Week Actual

Passengers

Forecast

Error

FE

Absolute

Deviation

AD

AbsError

$\%$

APE

$14051919487$

$24102020510$

$34202121480$

$44152222520$

$54122323495$

$64202424530$

$74242525520$

$84332626450$

$94382727500$

$104402828460$

$114462929510$

$124513030495$

$134553131525$

$144643232480$

$154663333535$

$164743434490$

$174763535475$

$184823636500$

Average $440\mathrm{.}6$ #DIV$/0!497\mathrm{.}9$

MFE MAD MAPE

Mean

Forecast

Error

Mean

Absolute

Dev

Mean Abs

Percent

Error