Chapter 7 Managing Risk 245 Activity Description Predecessor a opt m ml b pess 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Codify accounts File articles of unification Unify price and credit policy Unify personnel policies Unify data processing Train accounting staff Pilot run data processing Calculate P & L and balance sheet Transfer real property Train salesforce Negotiate with unions Determine capital needs Explain personnel policies Secure line of credit End None None None None 1 1 5 6,7 2 3 4 8 11 9, 12 10, 13, 14 16 30 60 18 17 4 12 6 18 20 40 11 14 13 19 30 72 27 29 7 15 12 27 35 55 28 30 90 30 47 10 18 24 30 50 100 29 26 19 0 20 23 16 0 0 1. Compute the expected time for each activity. 2. Compute the variance for each activity. 3. Compute the expected project duration. 4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within 116 days