Question: Choose one data set. Graph the data and briefly discuss the behavior. Which forecasting method do you think will perform better? Why? Use the data
Choose one data set. Graph the data and briefly discuss the behavior. Which forecasting method do you think will perform better? Why? Use the data from Jan92 to Dec16 to run three forecasting methods: MA (choose the number of periods you consider adequate), exponential smoothing (choose the alpha you consider adequate), and a simple regression (with X representing the month). What model performs better? Why? Split your data in two: from Jan92 to Dec07 and from Jan10 to Jan17. Run a regression analysis for both data sets. What can you conclude? What do the parameters tell you? If a regression model for the data from Jan08 to Dec09 were run, how will the parameters look?
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