CONCLUSION

Decision analysis provides a quantitative method for choosing among options in the face of uncertainty. It allows us to specify alternatives and estimate payoffs of decisions based on our assessment of their likelihood of occurrence. It further allows the health care manager to assess how different probabilities of future states of the world affect decision making. Decision analysis has three core component parts: the alternatives, the anticipated or forecasted state of the world that will occur after the decision is made, and the payoffs assigned to each. It is important to note, however, that in healthcare management decision making, expected payoff is not always the only criterion we use for assessing choices. It is important to consider patients' quality of life and other values important to the community, because it is not just the decision but the consequences of that decision that are ultimately most important.