1. Consider the following time series data.

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Value	24	23	19	25	20	23	25

1. Using excel, construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

2. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

3. Use = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

4. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

2. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 85, and 83.

1. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

2. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for = 0.2.

3. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy?

4. What is the forecast for next month?

3. Consider the following time series.

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Value	118	112	100	94	96	92	86

1. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

2. Use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters for the best fit line.

3. What is the forecast for t = 8?