Question: Consider the following time series data. The data represents quarterly sales of TV sets (in thousands) over 4 years Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year

Consider the following time series data. The data represents quarterly sales of TV sets (in thousands) over 4 years

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

1

2

3

4

4.8

4.1

6.0

6.5

5.8

5.2

6.8

7.4

6.0

5.6

7.5

7.8

6.3

5.9

8.0

8.4

  1. Graph this sales series. What type of pattern exists in the data? Does the graph suggest that these data exhibit seasonality? What is the length of the season in this particular case?
  2. Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter using Method 2 described in Lesson 5 (refer to slides).
  3. Based on the results of part (b), determine the deseasonalized sales series.
  4. Use regression analysis to obtain the least square fit (trend line) for deseasonalized sales series.
  5. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year (Year 5)?

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