Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	14

1. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

   Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
   1	18
   2	13
   3	16
   4	11	fill in the blank 3
   5	17	fill in the blank 4
   6	14	fill in the blank 5

   MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
2. Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

   Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
   1	18
   2	13	fill in the blank 8
   3	16	fill in the blank 9
   4	11	fill in the blank 10
   5	17	fill in the blank 11
   6	14	fill in the blank 12

   MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
3. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

   Three-week moving averageExponential smoothing

   Explain. The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.
4. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2.

   Any alpha greater than .2 but less than .58 provides better results.Any alpha less than .2 provides better results.Any alpha greater than .58 provides better results.Any alpha less than .2 or greater than .58 provides better results.