1. Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	14

1. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?
2. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.
3. Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.
4. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using=0.2. which appears to provide better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
5. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficientthat results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for=0.2 .