Consider the table of Causal Forecasting Methods presented in Chapter 10 of the textbook With regard to the accuracy of the forecasting methods - columns 4, 5, and 6 - presented in the table, which one (1) forecasting method yields the best overall accuracy when the forecasting accuracy for the short-term, Intermediate term and long-term are considered together? In 50 to 80 words, offer your rationale to support your choice of best overall forecasting method TABLE 10.2 Qualitative Forecasting Methods Qualitative Methods 1. Delphi Short Term Fair to very good Accuracy Medium Term Fair to very good Long Term Fair to very good Relative Cost Medium to high Uses Capacity or facil ity planning. To assess when technological changes might occur. Description of Method Forecast developed by a panel of experts answer ing a series of questions on successive rounds. Anonymous responses are fed back on each round to all participants. Three to six rounds may be used to obtain convergence Panels, questionnaires, test markets, or surveys used to gather data on market conditions. Good Fair 2. Market surveys High Very good Total company sales, major product groups, or individual products, Long-range sales for capacity or facility planning Poor Fair to 3. Life-cycles analogy Fair to good Medium good Prediction based on the Introduction, growth, and maturity phases of simi- lar products. Uses the S-shaped sales growth curve Forecast by a group or an individual on the basis of experience, hunches, or facts about the situa- tion. No rigorous method is used 4. Informed judgment Low Total sales and individual products. Poor to fair Poor to fair Poor to fair Source: Exhibit adapted from David M. Gcorgoff and Robert Murdick, "Manager's Guide to Forecasting." Harvard Business Review. January February 1986, pp. 110-120