CONTEXTUALIZATION Questions 2 and 3 involve demand forecasting methods. Both use the information contained in Figure 01. Figure 01. Exports of aseptic banana puree in tons from January to December. Quantity Time course demanded 1 250 2 270 3 285 4 285 300 320 310 340 355 360 11 Source: prepared by the author, 2021. QUESTION 2 The company TR2 S.A. exports aseptic banana puree to the European market with monthly deliveries in tonnes. Figure 01 shows the quantity demanded for 10 consecutive periods. Given the constant changes in the external environment, TR2 decided to adopt a demand forecasting method that best fits its production. Thinking about time series, the company tried to test the exponential moving average method with alpha=0.4 and the four-month moving average method for such data. a) What are the forecasts for month 11 according to each of these methods and b) Among the forecasts made in each of the 2 methods, which is the most appropriate forecast according to the MAD criterion (Average of absolute errors). In other words, what would be your recommendation for a company to adopt? Justify. NOTE: Use the tables in Figure 02 as support to answer question 03 6 7 8 10 Figure 02. Support table Quantity Quantity Time course demanded demanded 1 250 250 270 270 285 285 285 285 300 300 320 320 310 310 8 340 340 9 355 9 355 10 360 10 360 11 11 QUESTION 3 As an alternative to the use of time series, the company TR2 S.A. also want to use linear regression to forecast period 11 demand. According to the linear regression method, using the data in Figure 01, which would be the most appropriate model to make the prediction? For the correct linear regression model, what would the demand forecast in period 11 be? Explain the formulas used and calculations performed to obtain the linear regression model suitable for the task described in question 03. What would be the demand forecast for period 11 according to this 234567 Moving Average Forecast Error Time course 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Exponential. Smoothing Forecast 250.0 Error CONTEXTUALIZATION Questions 2 and 3 involve demand forecasting methods. Both use the information contained in Figure 01. Figure 01. Exports of aseptic banana puree in tons from January to December. Quantity Time course demanded 1 250 2 270 3 285 4 285 300 320 310 340 355 360 11 Source: prepared by the author, 2021. QUESTION 2 The company TR2 S.A. exports aseptic banana puree to the European market with monthly deliveries in tonnes. Figure 01 shows the quantity demanded for 10 consecutive periods. Given the constant changes in the external environment, TR2 decided to adopt a demand forecasting method that best fits its production. Thinking about time series, the company tried to test the exponential moving average method with alpha=0.4 and the four-month moving average method for such data. a) What are the forecasts for month 11 according to each of these methods and b) Among the forecasts made in each of the 2 methods, which is the most appropriate forecast according to the MAD criterion (Average of absolute errors). In other words, what would be your recommendation for a company to adopt? Justify. NOTE: Use the tables in Figure 02 as support to answer question 03 6 7 8 10 Figure 02. Support table Quantity Quantity Time course demanded demanded 1 250 250 270 270 285 285 285 285 300 300 320 320 310 310 8 340 340 9 355 9 355 10 360 10 360 11 11 QUESTION 3 As an alternative to the use of time series, the company TR2 S.A. also want to use linear regression to forecast period 11 demand. According to the linear regression method, using the data in Figure 01, which would be the most appropriate model to make the prediction? For the correct linear regression model, what would the demand forecast in period 11 be? Explain the formulas used and calculations performed to obtain the linear regression model suitable for the task described in question 03. What would be the demand forecast for period 11 according to this 234567 Moving Average Forecast Error Time course 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Exponential. Smoothing Forecast 250.0 Error