Question: Could you please do all parts for the question Use household gross fixed investment, residential structures, flow from FRED (label BOGZ1FU155012061Q). Drop all observations before
Could you please do all parts for the question
Use household gross fixed investment, residential structures, flow from FRED (label BOGZ1FU155012061Q). Drop all observations before the first quarter of 1952. A. Convert the series to logarithms and estimate a linear trend. Plot the residuals from the series and discuss. Do you think that the residuals exhibit seasonality and or a cycle component? 2 points. B. Estimate a model of the log of the series with a linear trend plus seasonal dummy variables. Plot the residuals and discuss. Do you think that the residuals exhibit a cycle component? 2 points. C. Estimate and AR(4) model with a trend and with or without seasonal dummy variables, depending upon your answers to a and b. Plot the residuals and discuss. 2 points. D. Using the model in part c, generate point and interval forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2022 , and the first and second quarters of 2023 using the direct method. Create a plot of the forecasts and intervals. Report the interval and point forecasts numerically as well as graphically. 2 points. E. What additional adjustments to the forecast model do you think might be appropriate? Why? 2 points. Use household gross fixed investment, residential structures, flow from FRED (label BOGZ1FU155012061Q). Drop all observations before the first quarter of 1952. A. Convert the series to logarithms and estimate a linear trend. Plot the residuals from the series and discuss. Do you think that the residuals exhibit seasonality and or a cycle component? 2 points. B. Estimate a model of the log of the series with a linear trend plus seasonal dummy variables. Plot the residuals and discuss. Do you think that the residuals exhibit a cycle component? 2 points. C. Estimate and AR(4) model with a trend and with or without seasonal dummy variables, depending upon your answers to a and b. Plot the residuals and discuss. 2 points. D. Using the model in part c, generate point and interval forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2022 , and the first and second quarters of 2023 using the direct method. Create a plot of the forecasts and intervals. Report the interval and point forecasts numerically as well as graphically. 2 points. E. What additional adjustments to the forecast model do you think might be appropriate? Why? 2 points
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