Question: CPPC is a Ghanaian cocoa processing company that exports cocoa butter to South Africa. CPPC bills its client in South Africa in South African rands

CPPC is a Ghanaian cocoa processing company that exports cocoa butter to South Africa. CPPC bills its client in South Africa in South African rands (ZAR), the South African currency. CPPC is due to receive five million rands in 90 days for a consignment just shipped to South Africa. The spot rate today is GHS 0.3165/ZAR.

Descriptive statistics of the percentage changes in the quarterly exchange rates for GHS/ZAR are given below:

Minimum quarterly percentage changes -16.4%

Maximum quarterly percentage changes -12.6%

Average quarterly percentage change - 0.9%

Standard Deviation of quarterly percentage changes - 4.6%

Likelihood of the ZAR appreciating against the cedi - 60.2%

Likelihood of the ZAR depreciating against the cedi - 38.5%

If CPPC chooses not to hedge this exchange rate risk, what is CPPC's expected revenue in cedis from the consignment just shipped?

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