Create an IPCC-like stabilization scenario using the following simplified information. Starting in the year 2004, the...

 

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Create an "IPCC-like" stabilization scenario using the following simplified information. Starting in the year 2004, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is 378 ppm, the global emissions of CO2 are 7.4 Gt carbon per year, the total carbon in the atmosphere is 767 Gt, and emissions are growing by 4% per year, for example, in 2005 emissions reach 7.7 Gt, 8.0 Gt in 2006, and so on. Note that concentration is given in terms of CO2, but emissions and atmospheric mass are given in Gt carbon. The oceans absorb 3 Gt net (absorbed minus emitted) each year for the indefinite future. The change or decline of emissions is influenced by "global CO₂ policy" as follows: in year 2005, the emissions rate declines by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%, and after that and up to the point that concentration stabilizes, the change is 0.1% multiplied by the ratio of the previous year's total emissions divided by 7.4 Gt, that is Chg%t = Chg %t-1 (0.1) x (total emissionst-1) 7.4 After concentration stabilizes, emissions are 3 Gt year, so that emissions are exactly balanced by ocean absorption. To illustrate, Chg %2004 = 4% and Chg %2005 = 3.9%, and so on. Also, concentration can be calculated as 378 ppm X (total carbon in atmosphere/767 Gt). (a) What is the maximum value of concentration reached? (b) In what year is this value reached? (c) What is the amount of CO₂ emitted that year? (d) Plot CO₂ concentration and emissions per year on two separate graphs. (e) The scenario in this problem is a simplification of how a carbon stabilization program might actually unfold in the future. Identify two ways in which the scenario is simplistic. Create an "IPCC-like" stabilization scenario using the following simplified information. Starting in the year 2004, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is 378 ppm, the global emissions of CO2 are 7.4 Gt carbon per year, the total carbon in the atmosphere is 767 Gt, and emissions are growing by 4% per year, for example, in 2005 emissions reach 7.7 Gt, 8.0 Gt in 2006, and so on. Note that concentration is given in terms of CO2, but emissions and atmospheric mass are given in Gt carbon. The oceans absorb 3 Gt net (absorbed minus emitted) each year for the indefinite future. The change or decline of emissions is influenced by "global CO₂ policy" as follows: in year 2005, the emissions rate declines by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%, and after that and up to the point that concentration stabilizes, the change is 0.1% multiplied by the ratio of the previous year's total emissions divided by 7.4 Gt, that is Chg%t = Chg %t-1 (0.1) x (total emissionst-1) 7.4 After concentration stabilizes, emissions are 3 Gt year, so that emissions are exactly balanced by ocean absorption. To illustrate, Chg %2004 = 4% and Chg %2005 = 3.9%, and so on. Also, concentration can be calculated as 378 ppm X (total carbon in atmosphere/767 Gt). (a) What is the maximum value of concentration reached? (b) In what year is this value reached? (c) What is the amount of CO₂ emitted that year? (d) Plot CO₂ concentration and emissions per year on two separate graphs. (e) The scenario in this problem is a simplification of how a carbon stabilization program might actually unfold in the future. Identify two ways in which the scenario is simplistic.

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a and b The approach to this problem is to understand the calculation in the first 1year step from 2... View the full answer