Critical path is the longest path, therefore expected completion time of the project is 14 weeks. Considering path B with the longest expected duration, we have that project duration estimate of 14 + (1.645)(2) = 17.29 weeks corresponding to the risk of 5% of not delivering the project in time (here, 1.645 is Z-score for 95%). .45 14 17.29 Time (weeks) + Z 0 1.645 ETP + Zap = 14 + (1.645)(2) = 17.29 weeks Justification: Path A has a higher standard deviation than path B. If we base the project completion time on path A, then the estimated completion time (due date) of 16.58* weeks will not result in a 95% chance of completing the project by the due date. If Smitty uses 16.58 weeks as the estimated project completion time, we can only be 90.15%** certain of completing the project on or before the due date of 16.58 weeks. Therefore, 17.29 weeks should be stated as the estimated project completion time. * 10 weeks +1.645 (4) = 16.58 weeks ** Z = (16.58 -14)/2 = 1.29 and P(Z