Current information without market research P(FM) = .8 P(UM) = -2 Historical record of retained market research firm - when the market was eventually favorable 65% of the time their research indicate that with a positive survey result - P(PS|FM) = .65 PINS FM) = .35 - when the market was eventually unfavorable 85% of the time their research indicate that with a negative survey result - P(NSUM) = .85 P(PSUM)= .15 P(FM PS) 0.95 $200,000 B P(UM PS)=0.05 Large -$180,000 P(FMPS) $100,000 Small P(UMPS) $20,000 Nothing $0 P(PS) P(FMNS) $200,000 P(UMNS) PINS) $180.000 Hire Firm Hire Firm Large P(FMNS)=0.62 $100,000 Small 5 P(UMNS)=0.38 -$20,000 P(FMINS) $200,000 o PIUMINS) P(NS) Hire Firm -S180,000 Hire Firm Large P(FMINS=0.62 $100.000 Small P(UMINS)= 0.38 -$20,000 Nothing $0 P(FM) $200,000 0 P(UM) -$180,000 Don't Hire Firm Don't Hire Film Large P(FM) $100,000 Small P(UM) -S20,000 Nothing SO 1. Make the calculations for each node above (showing your work below). 2. Assuming the research firm will charge $10,000, identify the correct decision and expected value