d. Applying the forecast accuracy measures, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a=0.2, a=0.3, or a=0.4 for the housing start time series? Are the conclusions the same regardless of the choice of the forecast accuracy measure?

ter Unemployment rate Housing starts Real GSP Growth in Real GSP Sales of dimensional lumber Sales of sheet goods Sales of 4.97 22859 801462 6 143 67 4.90 24001 801462 6 145 67 25140 801462 151 71 W N 5.00 4.90 25812 801462 6 155 77 79 4.70 25253 835845 158 4.73 24736 835845 157 76 4.80 4 161 81 25253 835845 85 4.67 24262 35845 165 27173 870111 173 81 4.57 870111 176 84 4.47 25036 4.30 26111 870111 177 79 4.20 27271 870111 183 86 92 4.30 2752 891618 186 4.73 27886 891618 185 95 5.23 26738 891618 191 85 5.80 27553 891618 91 93 6.20 28418 91283 198 91 6.37 30297 912837 202 93 6.40 30468 91283 204 97 6.53 31291 12837 205 93 96 6.67 30741 14892 205 6.83 31882 14892 206 93 35414 914892 210 112 6.80 6.50 33715 914892 215 98 6.23 35268 964924 216 103 6.07 35494 964924 218 108 - - u u u u u u un Un o o O o U U U U O O O O N N N N N N NN . 5.93 3585 964924 217 108 5.83 35898 964924 221 105 5.60 37776 68553 228 110 5.40 39176 68553 233 116 5.30 41906 96855 239 122 5.20 45821 968553 242 112 5.10 43965 1016315 247 120 5.07 41509 1016315 242 119 4.90 37650 1016315 241 115 4.60 35797 1016315 235 116 33977 1071592 241 109 4.40 4.30 30134 1071592 242 120 4.30 2735 1071592 238 113 4.40 24693 1071592 232 114 4.37 22366 1077144 229 108 4.57 1449 1077144 230 106 5.07 3949 1077144 224 103 5.73 14586 1077144 208 86 6.57 13817 057675 191 80 1057675 193 85 7.37 15732 7.93 18630 1057675 199 93 8.13 18024 1057675 193 88 8.20 18634 1113104 197 85 W W W W U U On U N N N N - - 8.17 16717 1113104 195 88 8.13 4619 1113104 192 87 3.20 15265 1113104 185 82 188 75 A W N - A W N 8.03 14991 1149908 8.07 15584 1149908 188 85 8.03 6223 1149908 191 85 90 7.60 17201 1149908 196