d & e text values:

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PLEASE ANSWER a~d, may be completed in excel but show work. Thank you.

3. The data for this problem is the total number of COVID-19 cases in Coweta County. The data are located in the worksheet entitled 'Q3. There are 123 periods of data. The dates are in Column A, the period number is in Column D, and the COVID-19 data are in Column E. (a) Estimate the initial level and trend by using a regression where Y is the data and X is the period. Use the first 12 data points. Interpret the slope as the initial trend and the intercept as the initial level and place those values in the blue highlighted cells as Lo and 7o. (b) Calculate the levels, trends, and forecasts, using a=y=.5. Place them in the appropriate cells. (c) Make predictions for periods 124 and 125. For period 124, double the very last trend you calculated and and to the very last level you calculated to make the prediction. (d) Now, make a column called "new daily cases" as column F. This is not a cumulative measure, although it is bounded below by zero. Write a sentence or two to describe which forecasting method you would use to predict this new variable. You can make a prediction using the method if you want to. A B c D E G H 1 j K L M F Level Date County State Period Cases Trend Forecast Error Squared Error 1 2 3 0.8 alpha 0.7 gamma 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 2 2 3 3 3 6 5 6 9 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 3/14/2020 Coweta 3/15/2020 Coweta 3/16/2020 Coweta 3/17/2020 Coweta 3/18/2020 Coweta 3/19/2020 Coweta 3/20/2020 Coweta 3/21/2020 Coweta 3/22/2020 Coweta 3/23/2020 Coweta 3/24/2020 Coweta 3/25/2020 Coweta 3/26/2020 Coweta 3/27/2020 Coweta 3/28/2020 Coweta 3/29/2020 Coweta 3/30/2020 Coweta 3/31/2020 Coweta 4/1/2020 Coweta 4/2/2020 Coweta 4/3/2020 Coweta 4/4/2020 Coweta 475/2020 Coweta 4/6/2020 Coweta 4/7/2020 Coweta 4/8/2020 Coweta 4/9/2020 Coweta 4/10/2020 Coweta 4/11/2020 Coweta 4/12/2020 Coweta 4/13/2020 Coweta 4/14/2020 Coweta 4/15/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 10 10 14 19 20 23 37 41 42 48 56 64 67 76 80 82 87 100 101 106 121 135 138 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 | all county data TI E G . j - 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 A B 4/16/2020 Coweta 4/17/2020 Coweta 4/18/2020 Coweta 4/19/2020 Coweta 4/20/2020 Coweta 4/21/2020 Coweta 4/22/2020 Coweta 4/23/2020 Coweta 4/24/2020 Coweta 4/25/2020 Coweta 4/26/2020 Coweta 4/27/2020 Coweta 4/28/2020 Coweta 4/29/2020 Coweta 4/30/2020 Coweta 5/1/2020 Coweta 5/2/2020 Coweta 5/3/2020 Coweta 5/4/2020 Coweta 5/5/2020 Coweta 5/6/2020 Coweta 5/7/2020 Coweta 5/8/2020 Coweta 5/9/2020 Coweta 5/10/2020 Coweta 5/11/2020 Coweta 5/12/2020 Coweta 5/13/2020 Coweta 5/14/2020 Coweta 5/15/2020 Coweta 5/16/2020 Coweta 5/17/2020 Coweta 5/18/2020 Coweta 5/19/2020 Coweta 5/20/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia D 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 Q4 142 153 160 164 169 169 168 177 187 187 188 190 191 195 195 211 213 230 242 244 246 257 257 265 276 278 280 280 280 282 285 284 285 287 286 Q1 Q2 23 + all county data A B D E F G H 1 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 5/21/2020 Coweta 5/22/2020 Coweta 5/23/2020 Coweta 5/24/2020 Coweta 5/25/2020 Coweta 5/26/2020 Coweta 5/27/2020 Coweta 5/28/2020 Coweta 5/29/2020 Coweta 5/30/2020 Coweta 5/31/2020 Coweta 6/1/2020 Coweta 6/2/2020 Coweta 6/3/2020 Coweta 6/4/2020 Coweta 6/5/2020 Coweta 6/6/2020 Coweta 6/7/2020 Coweta 6/8/2020 Coweta 6/9/2020 Coweta 6/10/2020 Coweta 6/11/2020 Coweta 6/12/2020 Coweta 6/13/2020 Coweta 6/14/2020 Coweta 6/15/2020 Coweta 6/16/2020 Coweta 6/17/2020 Coweta 6/18/2020 Coweta 6/19/2020 Coweta 6/20/2020 Coweta 6/21/2020 Coweta 6/22/2020 Coweta 6/23/2020 Coweta 6/24/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georela Q2 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 303 311 316 331 376 383 397 403 414 415 417 421 422 432 440 458 463 463 468 474 476 488 507 509 511 515 519 526 538 548 545 550 554 569 599 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Q1 Q3 Q4 all county data 3. The data for this problem is the total number of COVID-19 cases in Coweta County. The data are located in the worksheet entitled 'Q3. There are 123 periods of data. The dates are in Column A, the period number is in Column D, and the COVID-19 data are in Column E. (a) Estimate the initial level and trend by using a regression where Y is the data and X is the period. Use the first 12 data points. Interpret the slope as the initial trend and the intercept as the initial level and place those values in the blue highlighted cells as Lo and 7o. (b) Calculate the levels, trends, and forecasts, using a=y=.5. Place them in the appropriate cells. (c) Make predictions for periods 124 and 125. For period 124, double the very last trend you calculated and and to the very last level you calculated to make the prediction. (d) Now, make a column called "new daily cases" as column F. This is not a cumulative measure, although it is bounded below by zero. Write a sentence or two to describe which forecasting method you would use to predict this new variable. You can make a prediction using the method if you want to. A B c D E G H 1 j K L M F Level Date County State Period Cases Trend Forecast Error Squared Error 1 2 3 0.8 alpha 0.7 gamma 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 2 2 3 3 3 6 5 6 9 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 3/14/2020 Coweta 3/15/2020 Coweta 3/16/2020 Coweta 3/17/2020 Coweta 3/18/2020 Coweta 3/19/2020 Coweta 3/20/2020 Coweta 3/21/2020 Coweta 3/22/2020 Coweta 3/23/2020 Coweta 3/24/2020 Coweta 3/25/2020 Coweta 3/26/2020 Coweta 3/27/2020 Coweta 3/28/2020 Coweta 3/29/2020 Coweta 3/30/2020 Coweta 3/31/2020 Coweta 4/1/2020 Coweta 4/2/2020 Coweta 4/3/2020 Coweta 4/4/2020 Coweta 475/2020 Coweta 4/6/2020 Coweta 4/7/2020 Coweta 4/8/2020 Coweta 4/9/2020 Coweta 4/10/2020 Coweta 4/11/2020 Coweta 4/12/2020 Coweta 4/13/2020 Coweta 4/14/2020 Coweta 4/15/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 10 10 14 19 20 23 37 41 42 48 56 64 67 76 80 82 87 100 101 106 121 135 138 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 | all county data TI E G . j - 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 A B 4/16/2020 Coweta 4/17/2020 Coweta 4/18/2020 Coweta 4/19/2020 Coweta 4/20/2020 Coweta 4/21/2020 Coweta 4/22/2020 Coweta 4/23/2020 Coweta 4/24/2020 Coweta 4/25/2020 Coweta 4/26/2020 Coweta 4/27/2020 Coweta 4/28/2020 Coweta 4/29/2020 Coweta 4/30/2020 Coweta 5/1/2020 Coweta 5/2/2020 Coweta 5/3/2020 Coweta 5/4/2020 Coweta 5/5/2020 Coweta 5/6/2020 Coweta 5/7/2020 Coweta 5/8/2020 Coweta 5/9/2020 Coweta 5/10/2020 Coweta 5/11/2020 Coweta 5/12/2020 Coweta 5/13/2020 Coweta 5/14/2020 Coweta 5/15/2020 Coweta 5/16/2020 Coweta 5/17/2020 Coweta 5/18/2020 Coweta 5/19/2020 Coweta 5/20/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia D 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 Q4 142 153 160 164 169 169 168 177 187 187 188 190 191 195 195 211 213 230 242 244 246 257 257 265 276 278 280 280 280 282 285 284 285 287 286 Q1 Q2 23 + all county data A B D E F G H 1 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 5/21/2020 Coweta 5/22/2020 Coweta 5/23/2020 Coweta 5/24/2020 Coweta 5/25/2020 Coweta 5/26/2020 Coweta 5/27/2020 Coweta 5/28/2020 Coweta 5/29/2020 Coweta 5/30/2020 Coweta 5/31/2020 Coweta 6/1/2020 Coweta 6/2/2020 Coweta 6/3/2020 Coweta 6/4/2020 Coweta 6/5/2020 Coweta 6/6/2020 Coweta 6/7/2020 Coweta 6/8/2020 Coweta 6/9/2020 Coweta 6/10/2020 Coweta 6/11/2020 Coweta 6/12/2020 Coweta 6/13/2020 Coweta 6/14/2020 Coweta 6/15/2020 Coweta 6/16/2020 Coweta 6/17/2020 Coweta 6/18/2020 Coweta 6/19/2020 Coweta 6/20/2020 Coweta 6/21/2020 Coweta 6/22/2020 Coweta 6/23/2020 Coweta 6/24/2020 Coweta Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georela Q2 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 303 311 316 331 376 383 397 403 414 415 417 421 422 432 440 458 463 463 468 474 476 488 507 509 511 515 519 526 538 548 545 550 554 569 599 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Q1 Q3 Q4 all county data