D Question 8 Enter the exponential smoothing forecast #2 for Q1 of 2020, whole number only. Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Exercise This is a continuation assignment to the moving averages assignment and assumes that the student has successfully built the skills in it. If this is not the case, do the moving averages assignment first. Learning Objectives: 1. Building basic spreadsheet modeling skills (creating a spreadsheet with formulas that connect data) 2. Building basics of time series forecasting using the exponential smoothing method To fulfill objective #1, it is required that all work is done in a spreadsheet, such as Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets, OpenOffice Sheets or a similar application. Excel is preferred. Use of calculators while working on this assignment is expressly prohibited. Cover story and data. Ms. Elizabeth Floyd, director of logistics for the Picturesque Calendar Company, wishes to evaluate several methods of time series forecasting. She has collected quarterly calendar sales data from years 2019 and 2020: a 2019 2020 Quarter 1 2 3 4 Actual Sales 1 300 900 300 1,100 Quarter 1 2 3 4 Actual Sales 1.200 800 200 1,000 Tasks: 1. Use the simple moving average technique to find forecasted sales for each quarter of 2020 bused on actual sales from the previous three quarters, 2. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast each quarter's sales in 2020, given that Ms. Floyd qualitatively forecasted 1000 calendars for quarter 4 of 2019. Ms. Floyd assigned an alpha factor of 1 for time series sensitivity, 3. Repeat the exponential smoothing problem above (#2) using an alpha factor of 3. 4. Calculate measures of forecast accuracy, such as MAD MAPE, for the period of the full ycar 2020. Do the simple moving average and exponential smoothing techniques seem to work well in Ms. Floyd's situation? In what ways do they appear to fail? Build a spreadsheet to enter the data given below and use formulas to calculate forecasts and evaluate forecasting accuracy. Always use whole numbers for the number of calendars, Round to 4 decimals metrics that are not expressed in units (calendars) and refer to forecast accuracy, e.g.. MAPE Use the Help Tool quiz with unlimited attempts to test some of the intermediate answers to make sure you are on the right track. Enter the final answers in the final quiz when ready Note on rounding of values expressed in percent, such as MAPE: If your formula looks like ab and then you click on the icon in the menu to display the value in % round to 4 decimals. If you use the formula ab 100, then round to 2 decimal